by Hriday Raval, 27th September 2024
India has emerged as the third most powerful nation in Asia, overtaking Japan and Russia in the latest 2024 Asia Power Index by the Lowy Institute. This annual index ranks 27 Asian countries and territories on various measures, including economic capability, military power, diplomatic influence, and soft power, painting a comprehensive picture of Asia’s power dynamics. While the United States and China continue to dominate the region, India’s ascension marks a significant turning point in the regional power structure. But what does this mean for Asia and the world?
Understanding the 2024 Asia Power Index: Where Does India Stand?
- United States continues to lead the Index with a score of 81.7 out of 100.
- China follows with 72.7 points, maintaining a significant lead over its Asian counterparts.
- India has now moved up to third with 39.1 points, overtaking Japan (38.9) and Russia (31.1)
Breaking Down the Numbers: India’s Performance vs. Major Asian Powers
Economic Capability
India’s economy is the fifth-largest globally, with a GDP of approximately $3.73 trillion in 2023 . This makes it the fastest-growing major economy in the world. The Asia Power Index gives India a score of 26.1 Economic Capability, positioning it behind China and Japan but ahead of Russia. Despite its strong GDP growth, India still lags in terms of economic relationships, scoring only 17.5 in this parameter, highlighting its relatively low trade volume compared to the likes of China.Military Capability
India has the world’s fourth-largest military, with over 1.45 million active personnel. The country allocates 2.9% of its GDP to defense spending, which stood at $76.6 billion in 2023 . According to the Index, India’s Military Capability score is 45.2, trailing behind China (69.7) United States (90.0), and Russia (54.8) but still stronger than Japan (29.0). While India’s ability to project power remains limited east of the Malacca Strait, its growing naval presence in the Indian Ocean is a key factor in its rising profile.Diplomatic Influence
With a score of 70.2 in Diplomatic Influence, India ranks third in this category, reflecting its active participation in global forums like the G20, BRICS, and Quad, as well as its growing strategic partnerships with the United States, Australia, and Japan. However, India’s diplomatic reach is still constrained by its limited focus on East Asian nations, presenting a potential area for growth.Soft Power and Cultural Influence
India’s Cultural Influence is where it shines, with a score of 38.7. From Bollywood to yoga, India’s cultural footprint extends far beyond its borders. Additionally, its large and dynamic diaspora — estimated at over 32 million people globally — has played a crucial role in spreading Indian culture and values around the world.Defense Networks
India scores 19.0 in Defense Networks, indicating moderate defense cooperation with regional partners. In contrast, Japan, which has taken on a more active defense role, has a score of 58.3. Strengthening defense networks, particularly with Southeast Asian countries, could further bolster India’s position.
Japan and Russia: Declining Influence and Regional Shifts
The Bipolar Power Structure: United States and China
Is India the Next Superpower?
- Strengthening Economic Ties: Engaging more deeply in regional trade agreements and economic frameworks.
- Expanding Military Presence: Enhancing its ability to project power beyond South Asia and into East Asia and the Indo-Pacific.
- Boosting Diplomatic Engagement: Building stronger bilateral relationships with Southeast Asian nations and asserting itself in multilateral forums.
Conclusion
India’s rise to the third-most powerful country in Asia marks a pivotal moment in the region’s power dynamics. While it is still far from challenging the supremacy of the United States and China, its growing influence is undeniable. If India can capitalize on its economic growth, military modernization, and expanding diplomatic reach, it may well be on its way to becoming the next superpower in Asia and beyond.
As the balance of power continues to shift, the world will be watching closely to see how India leverages its position to shape the future of Asia — and perhaps the world.
